Vietnam Cashew Market Intelligence | June 03, 2026
A New Signal from the West African RCN Market
(AFI USA SPECIFICATIONS FOR CASHEW KERNEL)
The West African raw cashew market has recently shown an interesting signal that may help participants better understand the current balance between seller expectations and buyer sentiment.
A fresh crop Ivory Coast (IVC) RCN parcel was recently offered to the market with the following reported characteristics:
* Origin: Ivory Coast (Fresh Crop 2026)
* Outturn: Approximately 46 lbs
* Nut Count: Around 185 nuts/kg
* Quantity: Approximately 500 MT
* Shipment: Loaded at the end of May
* Indication Level: Around USD 14xx/MT CNF Vietnam
At first glance, this may appear to be just another offer in the market.
However, the timing and pricing provide several useful insights.
What This Offer May Be Telling Us
The cargo was reportedly loaded near the end of May and is now being circulated to potential buyers.
Despite the correction seen across both kernel and RCN markets during recent weeks, offer levels remain within the USD 14xx/MT range.
This suggests that at least some sellers continue to hold relatively firm price expectations.
The market has clearly adjusted from the higher levels seen earlier in the season, but it has not yet entered a phase of aggressive discounting or distressed selling.
In other words:
The market is softer.
But it is not yet capitulating.
A Market Looking for Confirmation
One of the defining characteristics of the current market is the lack of conviction from both sides.
Sellers are reluctant to reduce prices aggressively.
Buyers remain cautious and continue to evaluate processing margins against current kernel demand.
Factories are still focused on:
* Inventory management
* Cashflow preservation
* Processing economics
* Realistic kernel realization
As a result, many discussions are taking place, but relatively few transactions are providing clear directional signals.
The Current Market Phase
Based on recent observations, the market appears to be in a waiting phase.
Not because participants lack information.
But because they lack confirmation.
Sellers are asking:
“Have prices fallen enough?”
Buyers are asking:
“Will prices fall further?”
Factories are asking:
“Can current kernel prices support new raw material purchases?”
Until these questions are answered through actual transactions, the market is likely to remain selective and cautious.
Why This Matters
Market direction is rarely determined by offers alone.
What matters is whether those offers convert into trades.
At this stage, one cargo does not define the market.
However, repeated offers at similar levels can help reveal where sellers are willing to defend value and where buyers begin to step back in.
This process often forms the foundation of the next market move.
Final Observation
The most important signal today is not necessarily price.
It is behavior.
The market is actively searching for equilibrium between:
* Seller expectations
* Processing margins
* Buyer confidence
* Available liquidity
The next phase will likely be determined not by asking prices, but by the quality and volume of actual transactions completed over the coming weeks.
Disclaimer
This article reflects market observations, industry discussions, and practical trading experience. It is intended for informational and discussion purposes only and should not be considered financial, commercial, or trading advice.