No one wants to lose.
The cashew market is not really falling.
It is being compressed.
Buyers don’t want to buy high
Sellers refuse to sell low
Message me directly:
Trading activity slows down.
Buyer side:
RCN margin ~40–60 USD/MT
Costs rising (interest, operations, claim risk)
Buyers push prices down to protect margin
Seller side:
Prices near cost level
Market direction still unclear
Sellers hold cargo, even move into bonded (+40–60 USD/MT) instead of selling at a loss
Result:
No one wants to be the first to lose money
The real question: BL vs Bonded
This is no longer about cheap vs expensive.
It is about:
Risk vs Control
BL cargo (Bill of Lading)
No physical inspection
Based on sample/spec
High risk if quality deviates
Looks cheaper, but you are buying uncertainty
Bonded cargo
Physically available
Can inspect, cut test, verify quality
Can calculate margin before decision
Costs +40–60 USD/MT
But you are buying certainty
The seller’s dilemma
Sell now:
Accept lower price
Cut margin / take loss
Recover cash
Hold (bonded):
Pay extra cost (~50 USD/MT)
Delay cash flow
Defend price
Current behavior:
Better to pay cost than sell below cost
To read the market, look at 3 layers:
Supply:
Cargo arriving
But consistent quality still limited
Factory behavior:
Weak margin → cautious buying
Preference for visible cargo (bonded)
Price signal:
Prices stable
Transaction speed slow
When these align:
Market is not falling it is forming a base
If the market were truly weak:
Sellers would liquidate aggressively
But now:
Sellers are holding
Paying bonded cost
Refusing to go below cost
This suggests:
Current levels are not the true bottom
This market is not about price direction.
It is about:
Who is willing to hold
Who is willing to wait
Who takes risk first
Buyers are buying safety
Sellers are defending value
A deal is not just about matching price.
It is about:
Matching
expectation
risk
and timing
📩 Trade inquiries welcome
RCN & NW cargo available (Bonded / BL)
This analysis reflects market observations and industry experience and is intended for discussion purposes only. It does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
Hồ Quang Bình
Vietnam Cashew Specialist
RCN Sourcing | Kernel Trade |
Africa–Vietnam Market Access
WhatsApp: +84 909 226 739
Email: kevin.quangbinh@gmail.com
Website: https://codebanthe.com/
Further Reading
This perspective is part of a broader thinking framework on how to operate in volatile agricultural markets.
If you want to understand deeper:
How to control cost structure
How to align cash flow with trading decisions
How to build a resilient trading system
You can explore more in my writing on agricultural trading operating systems.
Because in this business, survival is not about price.
It is about how your system responds to uncertainty.
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