This is one of the most misunderstood phases in the cashew market:
Nothing is moving
But risk is increasing
Prices look stable
Deals still happen (spot)
And yet:
The system is quietly tightening
1. Daily Notes — Market Snapshot
The market is currently “floating”:
price stabilizes after a drop, but new deals are slow
Factories are still selling spot
but forward contracts are almost frozen
Buyers are waiting for lower levels
→ not rushing to commit
This is not a recovery
This is hesitation
2. Market Notes — Price Reality
Kernel Prices (FOB Vietnam)
WW240: 3.30 – 3.50 USD/lb
WW320: 3.10 – 3.30 USD/lb
RCN CNF Vietnam (May shipment)
Guinea/Burkina (45–46 lbs): 1,475 – 1,525 USD/MT
IVC/Ghana (46–47 lbs): 1,500 – 1,550 USD/MT
Nigeria Kogi (46–47 lbs): 1,500 – 1,550 USD/MT
Nigeria Ogo (48–49 lbs): 1,575 – 1,625 USD/MT
On the surface:
Prices are holding
In reality:
Execution is slowing
3. Market Phase Analysis (Quan trọng nhất)
This is not a bullish phase
And not a clear downtrend
This is a stall phase with hidden pressure
Characteristics of this phase:
Price stabilizes → gives false confidence
Liquidity weakens → harder to exit
Buyers delay → waiting for confirmation
Sellers hold → anchored to higher levels
Result:
Market becomes “stuck”
But being stuck
does not mean being safe
It means pressure is building
4. Core Insight
At WW320 ~3.10:
RCN above 1,500 becomes structurally sensitive
Not because price is “too high”
But because:
Yield risk
Quality inconsistency
Slow selling speed
Margin becomes fragile
5. What Is Really Changing
The market is shifting from:
Supply concern
→ to
Margin acceptance
There is still supply
But buyers are asking a different question:
“Can I safely make margin?”
And right now:
The answer is uncertain
6. Decision Trap in This Phase
Most factories fall into this:
Not willing to buy (fear of loss)
Not willing to sell (fear of regret)
Result:
Decision freeze
And in trading:
Losing timing is more dangerous than losing price
Reset thinking
Market is stable but buyers are still cautious.
At WW320 ~3.10, RCN above 1,500 becomes quite sensitive on margin.
Are you looking to lock early or wait for another move?
Action direction
Supply is there, but deals are slow because buyers expect lower levels.
If quality is not strong, 1,500+ is not easy to move.
Do you prefer to rotate faster or hold price?
Decision framing
Spot is moving, but forward is almost frozen.
Those who sell early move cargo.
Those who hold high price are getting stuck.
For this lot, are you protecting margin or protecting flow?
8. Final Insight
This is the most dangerous phase:
Not when price falls
But when:
Price stops moving
And decisions stop with it
Because:
The market doesn’t punish immediately
It punishes delayed reactions
Conclusion
This is not a price game
It is a timing and structure game
If you read this phase correctly:
You stay flexible
If not:
You get trapped
Further Reading
https://codebanthe.com/bo/
Disclaimer
This article reflects market observation and practical trading experience.
It is for discussion purposes only and not commercial advice.