The first trading days of July suggest that the global cashew market is entering a more constructive phase.
Activity has increased.
Conversations between buyers and sellers have become more frequent.
Liquidity has improved compared with the previous month.
However, this is not yet a bull market.
It is a market that is gradually rebuilding confidence.
One of the clearest signals comes from kernel demand.
Importers in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Thailand, and Canada have become more active, leading to a noticeable increase in trading activity.
Kernel prices have strengthened by approximately 1–1.5% during the past week, with several grades recovering 3–5% from recent lows.
Interestingly, the recovery is not uniform.
Premium grades such as WW240, WW210, and Large White Pieces (LWP) are outperforming the broader market.
Meanwhile, WW320 is recovering more slowly, while kernel pieces remain relatively flat.
This suggests that buyers are not simply purchasing volume.
They are becoming more selective and are willing to pay premiums for better quality products.
On the raw cashew side, Vietnam continues to increase imports.
During the first five months of 2026, Vietnam imported approximately 1.45 million metric tons of raw cashew nuts, an increase of around 12% compared with the same period last year.
The structure of supply is also changing.
Tanzania has become Vietnam’s largest supplier, reaching approximately 154,000 MT, up around 16% year-on-year.
Côte d’Ivoire recorded the strongest growth, with exports to Vietnam increasing approximately 93%, reflecting its expanding role not only as an RCN exporter but also as an increasingly important participant in the global cashew value chain.
In contrast, shipments from Nigeria declined by approximately 29%, while Ghana fell by more than 50%, influenced by lower crop availability and tighter government controls on informal cross-border trade.
Benin and Burkina Faso continue to market remaining inventories while waiting for stronger international demand during the second half of the year.
RCN prices have also stabilized following the recent recovery.
Several offers for IVC 46 lbs are now above USD 1,500/MT CNF Vietnam.
Importantly, sellers are showing little interest in reducing prices.
Unlike previous months, distressed selling has become much less common.
This reflects improving confidence among exporters and traders.
Taken together, these signals suggest that the market is gradually moving toward a healthier balance.
Buyers are returning.
Sellers are becoming more patient.
Kernel prices are improving.
Raw material prices remain firm.
The discussion is no longer dominated by fear.
Instead, the focus is shifting toward execution.
Market Insight
The most important development today is not whether RCN reaches USD 1,500 per metric ton.
The more important question is whether processing margins can continue to support purchasing at these levels.
If kernel prices continue to strengthen while raw material prices remain stable, factories may gradually increase procurement activity.
If kernel demand slows again, however, margin pressure could quickly return.
In other words, the next phase of the market will likely be determined less by raw material availability and more by the relationship between kernel demand, processing economics, and factory confidence.
That is where I believe the market deserves the closest attention over the coming weeks.
Current Availability
For companies looking for nearby opportunities, the following cargoes are currently available:
NW ex Ghana: 4 containers in stock
Bonded RCN: Crop 2025 available
Bonded RCN: Crop 2026 available
I also continue supporting:
RCN sourcing
Cashew kernel trade
Middle East market access
I continue documenting these market observations and practical trading insights at:
👉 https://codebanthe.com