Vietnam Cashew Market Intelligence | June 22, 2026
When Liquidity Returns Before Price
One of the most interesting signals in today’s cashew market is not price.
It is behavior.
For months, much of the industry has focused on:
Weak kernel demand
Slow liquidity
Inventory pressure
Cautious buying decisions
Most participants were waiting.
Waiting for lower prices.
Waiting for stronger demand.
Waiting for clearer direction.
Today, some of those behaviors appear to be changing.
Bonded Crop 2025 Is Gradually Disappearing
Not long ago, buyers had many options when looking for bonded West African RCN crop 2025.
Today, that picture appears different.
Several market participants report that:
Bonded crop 2025 inventories are becoming less available
Some remaining parcels are being held back by sellers waiting for better opportunities
Crop 2026 arrivals have started entering bonded warehouses
This does not necessarily mean the market is short of supply.
But it does suggest that the inventory structure is changing.
And in commodity markets, inventory structure often changes before price does.
New Crop Positioning Continues
At the same time:
NW crop 2025 continues to be stocked
NW crop 2026 is gradually being accumulated
Buyer inquiries appear stronger than they were a few weeks ago
The market is not hot.
Aggressive buying is still absent.
Large-scale stock coverage has not yet appeared.
However, there is a noticeable increase in market activity.
More phone calls.
More cargo checks.
More discussions.
More requests for nearby shipment positions.
From Waiting to Positioning
This may be the most important change.
The market feels as though it is moving from:
Waiting
to
Positioning
Participants are no longer focused only on avoiding risk.
Some are beginning to look for opportunity again.
That does not guarantee higher prices.
But it often marks the return of market attention.
And attention is frequently the first stage of liquidity recovery.
Why Liquidity Matters More Than Price
Many people focus on price movements.
Experienced traders often focus on participation.
Because liquidity usually returns before prices move.
The sequence is often:
More inquiries
More cargo checks
More negotiations
More transactions
Then price reacts
Price is visible.
Liquidity is not.
Yet liquidity is often the better signal.
Current Market Phase
Based on current observations, the market appears to be entering an early positioning phase.
Characteristics include:
More active buyer inquiries
Selective but improving participation
Continued caution on both sides
Limited urgency
Better communication across the supply chain
Confidence has not fully returned.
But fear no longer dominates every conversation.
That alone is a meaningful shift.
Final Insight
The market may not be bullish yet.
But it no longer feels frozen.
And in commodity markets, liquidity often returns before price does.
The next important signal will not be higher offers.
It will be whether inquiries become transactions.
Because markets ultimately move on execution, not expectations.
Disclaimer
This article reflects market observations, industry discussions and practical trading experience. It is intended for discussion purposes only and should not be considered commercial, financial or investment advice.
Ho Quang Binh
Vietnam Cashew Specialist
RCN Sourcing | Kernel Trade | Africa–Vietnam Market Access
WhatsApp: +84 909 226 739
Email: kevin.quangbinh@gmail.com
Website: https://codebanthe.com/